除了围棋已经下不过AI，面临科技威胁，这五个行业也岌岌可危

07 除了围棋已经下不过AI，面临科技威胁，这五个行业也岌岌可危

2016年，技术和“分享经济”初创企业进一步冲击传统行业——从优步(Uber)和其他叫车应用冲击出租车市场，到Airbnb提供多种替代传统酒店住宿的选择。可是，哪些行业将面临下一阶段的数字化和自动化挑战呢？英国《金融时报》记者们展望未来5到10年，哪5个行业将会缩水，甚至彻底消失。

1.实体旅行社

扰乱因素：在线旅游平台（Online travel platforms）

如今，订酒店、订门票，手指动一动就能完成；自助游在年轻人当中也更加流行。传统实体旅行社该何去何从？

Tui is the world's largest tour operator, running high-street travel agencies under the Thomson and First Choice brands, writes Murad Ahmed.But its chief executive Fritz Joussen says the “end game” is to morph into a different kind of business — less reliant on selling package holidays and more focused on owning and operating hotels and cruise ships.

据英国《金融时报》穆拉德·艾哈迈德(Murad Ahmed)报道，途易(Tui)是世界最大旅游公司，以Thomson和First Choice等品牌经营实体旅行社。但其首席执行官弗里茨·茹森(Fritz Joussen)表示，“终局”是转变商业模式——减少对度假套餐销售的依赖，更着重拥有和运营酒店和游轮。

Henry Hartveldt, founder of Atmosphere Research, says travel agencies will not wither away completely, but do need to change.“The ones that survive will be true experts,” he says.“They could be used to book a significant trip — a honeymoon, a significant family getaway, or a complex journey like planning a safari.

亨利·哈特费尔特(Henry Hartveldt)表示，旅行社不会完全消亡，但的确需要改变。“那些能够存活下来的旅行社将是真正的专家，”他说：“人们可以通过它们来预订一次特别的行程，如蜜月旅行或特别的家庭度假，或者筹划游猎之旅这样的复杂行程。”

“They will have found a niche and use digital tools to make sure people know who they are, as well as help their clients book… The question for the travel agency is do they need a retail storefront? To be honest, most don't.”

它们将发掘出一个小众市场，并且在帮助客户预订的同时，也利用数字工具来确保人们了解它们的存在……对旅行社来说，问题是它们是否需要零售门店？老实说，大部分旅行社并不需要。”

2.小型零部件生产商和分销商

扰乱因素：3D打印机（3D printers）

常去音乐会的人都知道，比起取票或者希望票能够按时寄到，现场打印门票更容易。企业将很快意识到，同样的道理也适用于零部件、设备和电子产品。

Bosch Rexroth, the drive and control unit of the private German electronics group, projects that in five to 10 years up to 40 per cent of the manufacturing equipment it uses could be printed instead of purchased.

私有的德国电子集团博世(Bosch)旗下的传动和控制公司博世力士乐(Bosch Rexroth)预测，在5到10年后，该公司可能打印，而非购买多达40%的制造设备。

In a demonstration of the latest methods this year, HP printed a lightweight quarter-pound chain link in less than 30 minutes — then attached it to a hoist and lifted up a car.

2016年，在对最新方法的展示中，惠普(HP)在不到30分钟的时间里打印出一个重四分之一磅的轻质链条，然后将这个链条连接到一台卷扬机上，吊起一辆汽车。

Dr Hoevel says equipment manufacturing could become up to 60 per cent cheaper than conventional methods used today.

赫费尔博士表示，使用3D打印技术，设备的制造成本可能比使用今天的常规办法低廉至多60%。

3.汽车保险公司

扰乱因素：无人驾驶汽车（Driverless cars）

想象一下这样的未来：一列列的无人驾驶汽车安静和小心地在城市和乡村行驶，无缝接送乘客，道路上的车辆更少，这些车辆发生的碰撞事故也更少。

For some, this is utopia.For the world's insurers it may be just the opposite.Motor insurance is one of the mainstays of the industry.It generates about $260bn in annual premiums for major global insurers and $17bn in profits, according to research from Morgan Stanley and Boston Consulting Group.They estimate that the motor insurance industry has a market value of about $200bn.

对一些人来说，这样的场景犹如乌托邦一样美好。但对全世界的保险公司而言可能恰恰相反。汽车保险是保险业的支柱之一。根据摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)和波士顿咨询集团(BCG)的研究，汽车保险每年为全球各大保险公司带来约2600亿美元的保费收入，170亿美元的利润。它们估计，汽车保险业的市场价值达到约2000亿美元。

New technology, the analysts say, puts a big chunk of that under threat in a variety of ways.First, fewer cars and fewer accidents mean less demand for insurance.In mature economies the market size could shrink by more than 80 per cent by 2040.Second, the insurance that is needed will be bought by companies such as car manufacturers, rather than by consumers.And as carmakers and tech companies get better at collecting and using data, they may be in a stronger position to sell insurance than the insurance industry itself.

分析师们表示，新技术以多种方式让汽车保险市场的很大一块遭受威胁。首先，上路的汽车更少，汽车的事故也更少，这意味着对汽车保险的需求减少了。到2040年，在成熟的经济体，汽车保险市场的规模可能缩水逾80%。第二，所需要的保险将会由汽车制造商等企业购买，而不是由消费者购买。而随着汽车制造商和科技企业改进数据的收集和应用，在销售保险上，它们可能处于比保险行业本身更有利的地位。

Some insurers are starting to react to the changing landscape.In the UK, Axa has joined a number of government-backed groups that are looking at how best to introduce driverless technology.In Japan, Mitsui Sumitomo and Tokio Marine, two of the biggest insurance groups, are examining new types of insurance products that might be needed.

一些保险公司开始对风云变幻的市场格局做出反应。在英国，安盛(Axa)加入一些得到政府支持的组织的行列，探索如何最好地引入无人驾驶技术。在日本，最大的两家保险公司三井住友(Mitsui Sumitomo)和东京海上(Tokio Marine)正在考察市场可能需求的新型保险产品。

4.理财顾问

扰乱因素：“机器人顾问”网站(robo-adviser websites)

传统理财产业监管更加严格，成本更高，自动化“机器人顾问”网站成为投资者新宠。

Traditional financial advisers have encountered a blizzard of regulation in recent years and now face being usurped by algorithms.

近年遭遇一场监管风暴的传统理财顾问，现在又面临被算法排挤的窘境。

New rules introduced in 2013 fundamentally altered advisers' business model, banning fund houses from paying them commission and increasing the minimum level of qualifications advisers should have.

2013年出台的新规从根本上改变了理财顾问的商业模式，新规禁止基金公司向他们支付佣金，并抬高了理财顾问的资格门槛。

The commission ban, which removed advisers' main source of income, forced those remaining in the business to either raise fees charged to retail investors or increase the minimum investment sum they would offer advice on.

佣金禁令切断了理财顾问的主要收入来源，迫使剩余从业者要么上调对散户投资者的收费，要么上调他们愿意提供咨询的最低投资额门槛。

Suddenly unable to afford their adviser, swaths of investors began to turn to one of the new breed of “robo-advisers”, which emerged in 2012.

大批投资者突然间负担不起他们的顾问，开始转向2012年兴起的新事物——“机器人顾问”。

5.汽车修理厂

扰乱因素：电动汽车（Electric vehicles）

电动汽车除了更加环保之外，故障也很少出现。是否意味着汽车修理厂即将倒闭？

Electric cars are often marketed to consumers on the basis that they are cleaner and cheaper to run than petrol or diesel rivals, writes Peter Campbell.

彼得·坎贝尔(Peter Campbell)写道，电动汽车向消费者推销的主要卖点，往往是它们运行起来比汽油车或柴油车更环保、成本更低。

But because they contain virtually no moving parts — other than the wheels — battery cars boast another advantage: there is almost nothing to go wrong under the bonnet.

但由于电动汽车除车轮以外几乎没有活动部件，它们还有一大优点可夸口：其发动机罩下几乎没有什么部件会发生故障。

While that may be good news for motorists, it spells trouble for the thousands of garages that make a living servicing and fixing petrol or diesel cars.

这对驾驶者来说可能是个好消息，却给成千上万依靠保养汽油车或柴油车谋生的汽车修理厂带来麻烦。

The aftersales sector is not only a huge source of jobs within the industry, it is also one of the most profitable parts of the motor sector.

售后服务部门不仅是汽车业一个巨大的就业来源，也是该行业最赚钱的领域之一。

词汇总结

morph [mɔːf]

v.在屏幕上变换图像；改变

But its chief executive Fritz Joussen says the“end game” is to morph into a different kind of business.

但其首席执行官弗里茨·茹森(Fritz Joussen)表示，“终局”是转变商业模式。

utopia [ju:'təupiə]

n.乌托邦（理想中最美好的社会）；理想国

For some, this is utopia.

对一些人来说，这样的场景犹如乌托邦一样美好。

premium ['priːmɪəm]

n.额外费用；奖金；保险费;(商)溢价

adj.高价的；优质的

It generates about $260bn in annual premiums for major global insurers and $17bn in profits

汽车保险每年为全球各大保险公司带来约2600亿美元的保费收入

financial adviser

财务咨询师；财政顾问

Traditional financial advisers have encountered a blizzard of regulation in recent years and now face being usurped by algorithms.

近年遭遇一场监管风暴的传统理财顾问，现在又面临被算法排挤的窘境。

diesel ['diːz(ə)l]

n.柴油机；柴油

Electric cars are often marketed to consumers on the basis that they are cleaner and cheaper to run than petrol or diesel rivals.

电动汽车向消费者推销的主要卖点，往往是它们运行起来比汽油车或柴油车更环保、成本更低。