“甜蜜的生意”

“甜蜜的生意”

复活节刚过，巧克力行业的“甜蜜生意”近况如何？巧克力公司对投资者来讲是不错的选择吗？FT的Lex专栏对此做出了有趣的短评。

测试中可能遇到的词汇和知识：

gambol 欢呼，雀跃

budding 发芽

Easter 复活节

hazelnut 榛子

forward multiple 动态市盈率，即股价与其未来1年预期每股利润的比值。比如预期A公司未来1年每股利润为1元，而目前它的股价是20元/股，那么它的动态市盈率就是20倍。

阅读即将开始，建议您计算一下阅读整篇文章所用时间，并对照我们在文章最后给出的参考值来估算您的阅读速度。

Chocolatiers: licking their lips（394 words）

Need to focus on faster-growing markets while managing developed ones

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Lambs are gambolling, flowers budding and supermarket shelves heaving with Easter eggs. Very rough estimates suggest that the world will devour a quarter of a million tonnes of chocolate in its biggest annual sweet-tooth splurge. It’s enough to make chocolatiers lick their lips.

Not that they – or their investors – have had much to complain about recently. Consumer spending on chocolate mirrors economic growth. There was a drop in 2009, but a 3 per cent recovery in the following year. That left consumption in the main developed markets at more than 5.5m tonnes, up a tenth over the decade. By late-2013, market researchers were estimating that volume growth in the chocolate sector (for the top 25 nations) was running at over 3 per cent. Gains were coming fastest in less developed markets – South America and Asia – and more slowly in Europe or the US. Annual growth of at least 2 per cent is now expected for the next few years.

A much bigger headache is rising raw material prices. Cocoa is up by a third since early 2013, to more than £1,800 a tonne. Milk production has tightened, putting pressure on prices there. A poor Turkish harvest means hazelnuts, too, have become dearer.

So the task for the big chocolate makers is to focus on faster-growing markets, while using new products and brand-management to push share gains in the developed ones. Swiss-based Lindt & Sprungli, which last month posted an 8 per cent sales rise in 2013 and 22 per cent jump in operating profits, is a case in point. It has earmarked Brazil, the world’s fifth largest chocolate market, on the first score, taking a majority stake in a new venture with a local specialist retailer. At the same time, it has launched the Hello range in Europe, chocolate cafés in Australia and Japan, and recruited tennis legend Roger Federer to front its products.

For investors, all this comes at a price. Pure chocolate plays are rare: Mars and Ferrero are private while chocolate is only a part of brand portfolios at Mondelez or Nestlé, say. Lindt shares trade on a 29 times forward multiple; Hershey, 24 times. These shares, though, have returned more than 500 and 200 per cent each over 10 years: the S&P 500, 100 per cent. Affordable luxury, perhaps?

请根据你所读到的文章内容，完成以下自测题目：

1. Which market is expected to grow at more than 2% annualy for the coming years?

a. The least developed countries.

b. Europe and US.

c. South America and Asia.

d. Australia and Japan.

2. What should chocolatier investors worry most?

a. Global economic growth.

b. Cocoa and milk prices.

c. Business development in emerging markets.

d. Profits of chocolate business.

3. How does Lindt & Sprungli implement its strategy?

a. It focuses on raw material cost reduction.

b. It cooperates with a Brazilian retailer.

c. It establishes a hazelnuts plantation in Turkey.

d. It diversifies its business like Mars and Nestle.

4. In the last paragraph, what does it mean by "for investors, all this comes at a price"?

a. Chocolatier shares are expensive.

b. Chocolates are not cheap.

c. Chocolatier shares are highly risky.

d. Chocolate investors would wait years to get returns.

[1] 答案c. South America and Asia.

解释：分析说全球最大的25个市场的销量增长超过3%（干扰信息，说的是2013当年），而欧美市场的增长很慢，新兴市场的增长很快，第二段结尾总结说未来几年全球市场增长至少2%。因此可以确信增长最快的南美和亚洲超过2%。

[2] 答案d. Profits of chocolate business.

解释：各种情况最终都需要归结到公司的利润上看，因为投资者是要求投资回报的。

[3] 答案b. It cooperates with a Brazilian retailer.

解释：ACD文中均未提到。

[4] 答案a. Chocolatier shares are expensive.

解释：全文一直都在讲Lindt瑞士莲公司的发展战略不错，最后一段笔锋一转，意思是这么出色的巧克力企业股价不便宜：29倍的动态市盈率（如果每股利润不变，要29年才可收回投资）。最后一句由笔锋一转：虽然如此，过去10年瑞士莲和好时(Hershey)公司的回报率达到500%和200%。于是，Affordable luxury, perhaps?